Triangle Rent Growth Is Slowing. Is It Finally Time to Stop Renting and Buy?

Why a cooling rental market might be the opening first-time buyers in Raleigh, Cary, and the greater Triangle have been waiting for

A familiar renter story in the Triangle

A few years ago, it felt like every lease renewal in Raleigh, Cary, or near RTP came with bad news.
Rent up 8%.
Then 10%.
Then another jump the year after that.

But lately, I’ve been hearing a different story from renters across the Triangle.

“This year, my rent barely went up.”
“Ours stayed flat.”
“They offered a longer lease instead of an increase.”

If that sounds familiar, you’re not imagining things. Rent growth in the Triangle has slowed compared to the surge we saw coming out of 2021–2023.

Which brings up a big question many renters are quietly asking:

“If rents aren’t skyrocketing anymore, is it smarter to keep renting or is this actually the window to buy before the next wave of demand hits?”

Here’s how to think through that decision specifically in the Triangle right now.

What “slowing rent growth” really means

First, an important clarification:

Slowing rent growth does NOT mean rents are falling.
It simply means the rate of increase has cooled.

Instead of 8–12% annual increases, many Triangle renters are seeing smaller bumps or even flat renewals.

This usually happens when:

• A large number of new apartment communities deliver at once

• Some renters transition into homeownership, easing pressure on the rental pool

• Property managers compete more aggressively to keep good tenants

What this means for you:
Your monthly rent may feel more predictable for now but that alone doesn’t automatically mean waiting to buy is the best move.

When it might make sense to keep renting

Buying isn’t right for everyone, and slowing rent growth can actually work in your favor in certain situations.

It may make sense to keep renting if:

• You plan to stay in the Triangle fewer than 3 years

• Your income is unstable (new job, commission-heavy, self-employed without history)

• You don’t yet have cash for closing costs + an emergency fund

• Your credit score needs improvement to qualify for a strong interest rate

In these cases, slower rent growth can be a gift, it gives you breathing room to build savings, improve credit, and plan intentionally instead of rushing into a purchase.

When a cooling rental market becomes a buying opportunity

For other renters, slowing rent growth can be a quiet signal that it’s time to shift gears.

Here’s why:

• Smaller rent increases make it easier to save for a down payment, especially if you lock in a 12-month lease while preparing

• As more renters start thinking about buying, starter homes and townhomes can tighten up, even if the broader market feels balanced

• Even in a calmer rental market, 100% of your rent payment builds zero equity

A simple mindset shift:

If you’re stable, plan to stay put, and can qualify, slowing rent growth can be your signal to move from “survival mode” to “positioning to buy” mode.

Triangle-specific factors renters should consider

This decision isn’t happening in a vacuum—local dynamics matter.

A few things I see on the ground in the Triangle:

Strong job growth & RTP influence
The Research Triangle’s employer base continues to support long-term demand for both rentals and owned homes.

Neighborhood differences matter
Areas near RTP, downtown Raleigh, and west Cary often see stronger buyer competition, even when rent growth cools elsewhere.

New construction vs. resale
Townhomes and smaller single-family homes are often the most realistic “step-in” options for renters transitioning to ownership, especially compared to older inventory needing major updates.

You don’t need perfect market timing but you do need local context.

A simple rent vs. buy framework

If you’re on the fence, run through this quick checklist:

• Time horizon: Planning to stay 3–5+ years?

• Monthly budget: How does your current rent compare to a realistic mortgage (including taxes, insurance, HOA)?

• Savings: Do you have funds for down payment, closing costs, and 3–6 months of reserves?

• Lifestyle: Are you ready for maintenance and less flexibility to move quickly?

If most of these lean “yes,” it may be time to explore ownership seriously.