Is a Housing Crash Coming? Here’s What the Data Actually Shows in the Triangle

If you’ve been scrolling Facebook or YouTube lately, you’ve probably seen sensational headlines claiming a massive housing crash is coming. Some posts even predict national home prices could fall 30–50% to “restore affordability.”

It’s a bold claim, and it’s completely disconnected from what’s actually happening in the Triangle market today.

Let’s break down the facts so buyers and sellers can move forward with confidence instead of fear.

1. Home Prices Would Need an Extreme Economic Shock to Fall 30–50%

Historically, home prices almost never see national declines anywhere near this scale:

• The 2008 crash, the biggest housing downturn in modern history, saw national values fall 18–20% peak to bottom.

• Even hard-hit metros fell 25–35%, not 50%.

• Data from Case-Shiller’s 35 years of national home-price tracking shows only two periods of meaningful decline:

  • Early 1990s: mild

  • 2006–2012: tied to subprime mortgages, unemployment surges, and 4 million foreclosures

• Today: mortgage underwriting is stronger than at any time since the 1990s. Delinquencies remain near historic lows.

To see a 40%+ drop, we’d need a combination of mass unemployment, credit collapse, and foreclosure waves, none of which are present today.

2. Triangle Home Prices Have Grown in a Stable, Long-Term Trend

Let’s look at actual data, not fear-based predictions.

Triangle Median Home Price Trend (Wake County as a Representative Indicator)

(Using available public MLS summaries and county market reports)

• 2015: ~$265,000

• 2018: ~$315,000

• 2020: ~$345,000

• 2022: ~$450,000

• 2023: ~$480,000

• 2024: ~$495,000 (rolling 12-month median)

• 2025 YTD: roughly flat to slightly up depending on sub-market

This isn’t “bubble behavior.” It’s long-term appreciation driven by:

✔ Strong job growth
✔ In-migration from higher-priced states
✔ Limited housing supply
✔ Demand for affordable Southern metros with high quality of life

Even during recent interest-rate spikes, prices flattened rather than falling sharply, a sign of a fundamentally healthy market.

3. Local Supply Conditions Do NOT Support a Crash

A real housing crash requires dramatically more supply than demand.
That’s the opposite of what we have in the Triangle.

Current Market Reality:

• Wake County has been running 2–3 months of inventory, while 6 months is considered a “balanced” market.

• Builders still report backlogs and “sold-out” phases in many parts of Apex, Holly Springs, Fuquay, and Rolesville.

• In-migration into Wake County remains strong, roughly 60–70 people per day move into the region.

• Raleigh continues to rank among the Top 5 fastest-growing job markets in the country.

When demand consistently outpaces supply, large price drops simply aren’t realistic.

4. Affordability Is the Issue, Not a Price Collapse

Affordability absolutely matters.
But historically, the real correction for affordability happens through:

• Wage growth increasing

• Interest rates easing

• Inventory slowly improving

• Prices flattening, not crashing

And we’re already seeing early signs:

• Inflation cooling

• Mortgage rates trending downward from recent peaks

• Wage growth outpacing home-price growth in many metros

• New construction inventory expanding in the Triangle suburbs

This is what a normalizing market looks like, not the start of a freefall.

5. Why Buyers and Sellers Should Focus on Real Data, Not Headlines

For Buyers:

Waiting for a 40–50% crash is like waiting for gasoline to drop to $1.00/gal again.
You’ll wait forever and miss opportunities.

Instead, buyers should focus on:

• Rate-buydown incentives

• New inventory hitting the market

• Builders offering concessions

• Potential rate drops giving room to refinance

For Sellers:

Sellers should know that:

• Prices remain stable

• Well-prepared and well-marketed homes still sell quickly

• Unique homes and great locations continue to command premium prices

• Pricing strategy matters more than ever, but demand is still solid

The fundamentals are strong. The data supports stability, not collapse.

Bottom Line: The Triangle Real Estate Market Is Not Heading for a Crash

Yes, affordability is tight.
Yes, buyers are more sensitive to rates.
But the numbers do not support a catastrophic price correction, especially not in high-demand, job-rich markets like Raleigh, Cary, Apex, and Holly Springs.

If you want clarity on what your home is worth or what buying in this market actually looks like, I’m here to help you cut through the noise and make smart, informed decisions.